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Since the first direct detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO–Virgo collaboration in 2015 (B. P. Abbott et al., 2016), the size of the gravitational-wave transient catalog has grown to nearly 100 events (R. Abbott et al., 2023), with the ongoing fourth observing run more than doubling the total number. Extracting astrophysical or cosmological information from these observations is a hierarchical Bayesian inference problem. GWPopulation is designed to provide simple-to-use, robust, and extensible tools for hierarchical inference in gravitational-wave astronomy or cosmology. It has been widely adopted for gravitational-wave astronomy, including producing flagship results for the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaborations (Abac et al., 2024; R. Abbott et al., 2023). While designed to work with observations of compact binary coalescences, GWPopulation may be available to a wider range of hierarchical Bayesian inference problems. 

ABSTRACT Fulfilling the rich promise of rapid advances in time-domain astronomy is only possible through confronting our observations with physical models and extracting the parameters that best describe what we see. Here, we introduce redback; a Bayesian inference software package for electromagnetic transients. redback provides an object-orientated python interface to over 12 different samplers and over 100 different models for kilonovae, supernovae, gamma-ray burst afterglows, tidal disruption events, engine-driven transients among other explosive transients. The models range in complexity from simple analytical and semi-analytical models to surrogates built upon numerical simulations accelerated via machine learning. redback also provides a simple interface for downloading and processing data from various catalogues such as Swift and FINK. The software can also serve as an engine to simulate transients for telescopes such as the Zwicky Transient Facility and Vera Rubin with realistic cadences, limiting magnitudes, and sky coverage or a hypothetical user-constructed survey or a generic transient for target-of-opportunity observations with different telescopes. As a demonstration of its capabilities, we show how redback can be used to jointly fit the spectrum and photometry of a kilonova, enabling a more powerful, holistic probe into the properties of a transient. We also showcase general examples of how redback can be used as a tool to simulate transients for realistic surveys, fit models to real, simulated, or private data, multimessenger inference with gravitational waves, and serve as an end-to-end software toolkit for parameter estimation and interpreting the nature of electromagnetic transients. 

Abstract We search for features in the mass distribution of detected compact binary coalescences which signify the transition between neutron stars (NSs) and black holes (BHs). We analyze all gravitational-wave (GW) detections by the LIGO Scientific Collaboration, the Virgo Collaboration, and the KAGRA Collaboration (LVK) made through the end of the first half of the third observing run, and find clear evidence for two different populations of compact objects based solely on GW data. We confidently (99.3%) find a steepening relative to a single power law describing NSs and low-mass BHs below ${2.4}_{-0.5}^{+0.5}{M}_{\odot }$, which is consistent with many predictions for the maximum NS mass. We find suggestions of the purported lower mass gap between the most massive NSs and the least massive BHs, but are unable to conclusively resolve it with current data. If it exists, we find the lower mass gap’s edges to lie at ${2.2}_{-0.5}^{+0.7}{M}_{\odot }$and ${6.0}_{-1.4}^{+2.4}{M}_{\odot }$. We reexamine events that have been deemed “exceptional” by the LVK collaborations in the context of these features. We analyze GW190814 self-consistently in the context of the full population of compact binaries, finding support for its secondary to be either a NS or a lower mass gap object, consistent with previous claims. Our models are the first to accommodate this event, which is an outlier with respect to the binary BH population. We find that GW200105 and GW200115 probe the edges of, and may have components within, the lower mass gap. As future data improve global population models, the classification of these events will also improve. 

Abstract As catalogs of gravitational-wave transients grow, new records are set for the most extreme systems observed to date. The most massive observed black holes probe the physics of pair-instability supernovae while providing clues about the environments in which binary black hole systems are assembled. The least massive black holes, meanwhile, allow us to investigate the purported neutron star–black hole mass gap, and binaries with unusually asymmetric mass ratios or large spins inform our understanding of binary and stellar evolution. Existing outlier tests generally implement leave-one-out analyses, but these do not account for the fact that the event being left out was by definition an extreme member of the population. This results in a bias in the evaluation of outliers. We correct for this bias by introducing a coarse-graining framework to investigate whether these extremal events are true outliers or whether they are consistent with the rest of the observed population. Our method enables us to study extremal events while testing for population model misspecification. We show that this ameliorates biases present in the leave-one-out analyses commonly used within the gravitational-wave community. Applying our method to results from the second LIGO–Virgo transient catalog, we find qualitative agreement with the conclusions of Abbott et al. GW190814 is an outlier because of its small secondary mass. We find that neither GW190412 nor GW190521 is an outlier.